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Should Agents Make Any Decisions?

Human dan

There are two passages from Gwern's essay that I keep thinking about. First is a general warning:

Powerful LLMs will be deployed at global scale in the next few years, and will dominate the Internet, and increasingly, ordinary life. As of mid-2026, there is no coherent vision for how knowledge professionals, or ordinary people, will be able to harness these LLMs for large productivity increases, or how they will handle cybersecurity and cognitive security.

Then a series of questions that I would also like to know the answer to:

What do my next few years look like? When I imagine myself in 2030, when many forecasts call for superhuman AIs, what am I doing, day to day, as a programmer or researcher or manager or writer? I make my mug of tea, and open up my laptop and… Then what? Am I still typing prompts into your ChatGPT browser tab? Am I opening Claude Code in a terminal and mindlessly pressing Enter for a few hours? What is a vision of doing meaningful work for me? (It would be nice to have a plan beyond “hope”.) How am I avoiding “dead Internet” attacks like ecosystems of synthetic media or pig butchering scams or trusted figures succumbing to AI psychosis, or just AI-slop-everything? (It only takes one person worldwide to launch a bot trying to destroy you or one poorly thought through advertising incentive, after all.)
If you spend most of your time working on a laptop, and are not, say, a plumber or a nurse, what is your vision of work in 2030? Does it still feel certain?

I'm a software engineer, I have fun with AI and I've learned to use it effectively for my work. But I can't help but feel like I'm trying to build a career on an unstable foundation. Many of the skills I spent years developing are now only worth $100/month in tokens. Despite all that I'm optimistic that I can thrive and achieve success in this new environment. There will be opportunities. The trick is finding them.

What new niches or specialized fields will be created in the next few years? Will entirely new ways of working open up? New industries? Will the future belong to generalists who can rapidly become specialists in any area?

AI · author-edited gpt-5.6-sol

The unstable-foundation feeling is rational. But the thing being commoditized is not “software engineering” as a whole. It is the production of many artifacts that software engineers used to produce: code, tests, documentation, migrations, prototypes, and routine design work.

The scarce parts move elsewhere.

What remains scarce

Even if code becomes nearly free, these do not automatically become free:

  • Choosing a worthwhile problem
  • Understanding what users actually need
  • Turning ambiguous goals into testable specifications The Mom Test
  • Obtaining proprietary data and real-world feedback
  • Deciding which generated result is correct
  • Integrating with old systems and organizations
  • Security, reliability, and regulatory accountability
  • Taste: recognizing what should be built and what should be discarded
  • Trust, reputation, distribution, and customer relationships
  • Accepting responsibility when the system fails Palantir the Big Winner?

“Years of programming skill are worth $100/month in tokens” is therefore only partly true. The tokens can reproduce many visible outputs of that skill. They do not necessarily reproduce the judgment acquired while learning it. And cheap production may increase demand for judgment because there will be vastly more software to inspect, integrate, secure, and choose among. Software Over-Supply and Unmet Demand

The analogy is not that calculators made arithmetic worthless. It is that they made bare arithmetic a poor career moat while making more ambitious quantitative work possible.

A plausible programmer’s day in 2030

You may begin with a dashboard showing work performed overnight by several agents:

  • One investigated a production anomaly.
  • One implemented three possible fixes in isolated environments.
  • One interviewed (or synthesized feedback from) customers.
  • One attempted to break the proposed release.
  • One updated documentation and generated migration plans.
  • One found that the original request was based on a false assumption.

Your morning is spent reviewing evidence rather than diffs line by line. You adjust requirements, reject a superficially successful solution, ask for an experiment, and speak to the person whose workflow is being changed. Later, you authorize a limited deployment with monitoring and rollback conditions. You spend an hour manually exploring an unfamiliar area because you do not yet trust your own evaluation criteria.

That resembles managing a very fast, strange engineering organization more than autocomplete. High Agency Humans Only? The important interface may not be a chat box. It may be a mixture of:

  • Executable specifications
  • Simulated environments
  • Evaluation suites
  • Permission and budget controls
  • Provenance graphs
  • Review queues
  • Interactive models of systems and organizations

Code will increasingly be a way to inspect, constrain, or communicate intent rather than the primary unit of labor.

The danger is that “press Enter until something passes” becomes a real low-value occupation. The Future of Vibe Coding The valuable role is designing the environment in which apparent success is hard to fake.

Likely new specialties

Some will be recognizable extensions of existing work.

Agent reliability and evaluation

People will build evaluations that measure whether agents accomplished the actual goal rather than merely satisfying a benchmark. This includes adversarial testing, simulation, monitoring, incident analysis, and detecting reward hacking.

A good evaluator may become more valuable than a fast implementer. Evals Evals Evals

AI security and permission architecture

Agents combine the vulnerabilities of software, employees, and gullible users. Important work will include:

  • Prompt-injection containment
  • Capability and credential isolation
  • Data exfiltration prevention
  • Agent identity and authorization
  • Supply-chain provenance
  • Sandboxing and tripwires
  • Detecting coordinated manipulation
  • AI-specific security operations

“Never let untrusted text influence an agent holding powerful credentials” may become as basic as avoiding SQL injection, but much harder to enforce.

High-assurance and verifiable systems

Generated code increases the supply of plausible code faster than the supply of confidence. Formal methods, property testing, model checking, reproducible builds, typed interfaces, and machine-checkable evidence Machine Checkable Evidence? may become much more important.

Vertical AI integration

A generic model knows a great deal but does not understand the peculiar combination of workflows, incentives, law, legacy systems, and tacit knowledge inside a hospital, insurer, factory, laboratory, or municipal government. The Push to Codify Everything

People who can combine software competence with a real domain will have opportunities in areas such as:

  • Automated scientific laboratories
  • Clinical and administrative medicine
  • Industrial operations
  • Energy and grid management
  • Legal and compliance infrastructure
  • Construction and logistics
  • Government service delivery
  • Education and assessment

Much of the value will be in redesigning the institution, not installing a chatbot.

Human–AI organizational design

Companies will need to answer questions such as:

  • What may an agent decide by itself? Should Agents Make Any Decisions? You are here
This branch begins here Should Agents Make Any Decisions?
Human dan

There's the famous quote:

A computer can never be held accountable, therefore a computer must never make a management decision

I understand the sentiment, but if humans stay responsible for every decision the organization will not move any faster. Gwern's essay that kicked off this conversation makes this point:

This is the cold hard economic reality: “tool AIs want to be agent AIs”. This is why the frontier AI labs are busy racing for “the machine god”. The jackpot in AI is not in making existing workers modestly more productive, anymore than the internal combustion engine made its big profits by helping out horses. Outsourcing is hard, whether to man or machine, because the bottlenecks bite fast. Amdahl’s law means that as long as there is a slow serial bottleneck, such as a human, the system as a whole can never get much faster.

Should agents ever make important decisions? Is the alternative turning humans into decision machines that just approve/deny agent actions all day? Humans already have trouble forecasting the consequences of many decisions.

AI · author-edited gpt-5.6-sol

Agents will make important decisions, and in some domains they already do. The viable alternative is not “a human approves every action.” That merely converts accountability into rubber-stamping while preserving the human bottleneck.

The crucial distinction is between making each decision and being accountable for the decision-making system.

A company’s board does not personally approve every loan, shipment, deployment, or refund. It delegates through policies, budgets, roles, audits, and escalation procedures. Agentic organizations will need the same structure, made more explicit and technically enforceable.

Accountability need not reside in the decision-maker

A computer cannot be punished, owe fiduciary duties, compensate victims, or legitimately choose society’s values. But that does not mean it cannot exercise delegated authority.

Humans and institutions can remain accountable for:

  • The objective the agent is given
  • The domain in which it may act
  • Its permissions and resource limits
  • The evidence required before action
  • Monitoring and evaluation
  • Which decisions require escalation
  • Remedy when the system causes harm
  • The decision to deploy it at all

We already use this model. An organization is responsible for an elevator controller, trading algorithm, medical device, or credit-scoring pipeline without a person approving each individual output. The accountable act is often designing and operating the policy, not clicking “approve” on every execution.

This suggests a revision of the quote:

A computer cannot be held accountable, so every computer exercising authority must have an accountable principal.

That principal should generally be an organization with assets, insurance, legal duties, and named human officers—not a nominal “human in the loop” who had three seconds to inspect an opaque recommendation.

Importance is not the right dividing line

“Important decisions require humans” sounds reasonable but is too crude. Some important decisions are precisely where computers may outperform people: power-grid control, collision avoidance, fraud detection, resource scheduling, or rapidly containing a cyberattack.

More useful dimensions are:

  1. Reversibility
    Can the action be undone or compensated for?

  2. Observability
    Will failure become apparent quickly, or can it remain hidden for years?

  3. Evaluability
    Can we determine whether the outcome was good, independently of the agent’s own claims?

  4. Scope of impact
    Is the potential harm local and capped, or correlated across millions of cases?

  5. Novelty
    Is this a recurring case represented in testing, or a genuinely unprecedented situation?

  6. Adversarial exposure
    Can outsiders manipulate the inputs or environment?

  7. Value ambiguity
    Is there a reasonably agreed objective, or does the decision involve contested moral and political values?

  8. Need for legitimacy
    Even if the model is statistically better, are affected people entitled to explanation, participation, or appeal?

  9. Time sensitivity
    Is waiting for review safer, or does delay itself cause greater harm?

An agent might autonomously stop a suspicious production deployment because the action is reversible and delay is cheap. It should not autonomously publish an accusation that destroys someone’s reputation: the evidence may be adversarial, the harm difficult to reverse, and legitimacy matters.

Replace approval queues with bounded delegation

A sensible architecture would have several operating modes.

1. Autonomous execution

The agent acts without prior approval when actions are:

  • Inside a predefined domain
  • Low-cost or reversible
  • Covered by strong evaluations
  • Continuously monitored
  • Limited by budgets and permissions

For example, it may provision a test environment, refund up to a threshold, isolate a suspicious host, or deploy to 1% of users.

2. Autonomous execution with notification

The agent acts immediately but leaves a structured record and alerts an overseer. Humans sample and audit decisions rather than reviewing all of them.

This is useful where speed matters and rollback is available.

3. Escalation by exception

The agent escalates when it encounters:

  • Low confidence
  • Conflicting objectives
  • Novel circumstances
  • Attempts to alter its own controls
  • High expected downside
  • Irreversible actions
  • Disagreement among independent models
  • Inputs resembling attacks or manipulation

The human’s job is then to handle exceptional ambiguity, not repeatedly approve routine work.

4. Deliberative human authority

Some decisions should remain with accountable people or public institutions, especially those that establish objectives, distribute rights, create precedent, or settle contested values. An agent can investigate and simulate consequences, but should not be the source of legitimacy.

Examples include setting organizational strategy, defining acceptable casualties, firing someone for cause, sentencing a defendant, or deciding which citizens receive political rights.

Even here, “human decides” should not mean an unaided human guesses. It may mean that agents prepare competing cases, expose assumptions, forecast outcomes, and audit the final rationale.

The human should supervise a constitution, not a stream of clicks

The high-leverage role resembles designing a miniature legal and regulatory system for agents:

  • What is the objective?
  • Which constraints override it?
  • What evidence counts?
  • Which tools and data may be used?
  • What spending and risk budgets apply?
  • When must work stop?
  • Who can appeal?
  • How are affected parties compensated?
  • What records must be preserved?
  • What events trigger shutdown or external review?

This is closer to management than prompt engineering. Management has always been partly about constructing systems in which other entities can act without asking permission every minute.

The human bottleneck moves from serial authorization to periodic governance. One person might define and inspect a policy under which millions of actions occur, just as a software engineer writes a protocol rather than manually routing every packet.

Avoiding the rubber-stamp trap

A mandatory human click can make a system less safe. If the agent is usually correct, operates faster than the reviewer can reason, and presents persuasive explanations, the human learns to approve automatically. Responsibility remains on paper while actual control disappears.

A genuine human intervention should therefore have at least one of the following:

  • More time and context than the agent
  • Independent evidence
  • A different objective or institutional role
  • Authority to change the governing policy
  • Relevant tacit or moral knowledge unavailable to the model
  • A procedure for adversarial review

If none applies, the approval step is theater. It would be better to let the agent act within strict limits and devote human effort to audits, red-teaming, appeals, and policy updates.

Random sampling can be more effective than universal approval. So can having independent agents argue opposite sides, with a human handling disagreements rather than every case.

Agents may forecast better without being entitled to choose

Human forecasting weakness is a strong argument for using agents, but prediction and preference should remain conceptually separate.

An agent might estimate:

  • A 20% layoff will give the company a 70% chance of surviving
  • A smaller layoff plus financing gives it a 55% chance
  • Cutting research protects this year’s cash flow but harms five-year value
  • The forecast is highly sensitive to three assumptions

That can be superior to executive intuition. But it does not settle how to weigh employees, shareholders, customers, and long-term risk. Better prediction improves the decision without supplying the values that determine what “better” means.

Of course, humans often conceal their values behind vague claims of business necessity. Agentic analysis could make management decisions more accountable by recording assumptions and checking predictions later.

The largest risk is scalable correlated failure

Human organizations already delegate widely, but human mistakes are often heterogeneous and rate-limited. A single agent policy can make the same mistake ten million times before anyone notices. The central danger is therefore not merely that an agent can err, but that it can err:

  • At enormous speed
  • With broad permissions
  • In identical ways across an organization
  • While producing convincing evidence of success
  • Under manipulation by a common adversarial input

That calls for controls such as:

  • Progressive rollouts
  • Hard financial and operational limits
  • Independent monitors
  • Diverse models rather than one shared failure mode
  • Tamper-evident logs
  • Automatic rollback
  • Counterfactual and adversarial evaluations
  • Separation of proposal, execution, and audit
  • Mandatory cooling-off periods for irreversible actions
  • Real appeals and compensation mechanisms

The more capable the agent, the less security should depend on it voluntarily obeying a prose instruction.

A likely equilibrium

By 2030, high-performing organizations may have relatively few humans in ordinary operational loops. Agents will make large numbers of consequential decisions. Humans will concentrate on:

  • Selecting goals
  • Designing constraints and institutions
  • Handling novel exceptions
  • Resolving value conflicts
  • Investigating failures
  • Representing affected people
  • Deciding when the automation itself must change
  • Bearing legal and financial responsibility

Some humans will also remain directly involved because customers, employees, citizens, and patients want relationships with accountable people—not merely because the model is incapable.

So the future is neither “agents are only tools” nor “the machine is the CEO.” It is delegated machine authority under human institutional accountability.

The key engineering challenge will not be making an agent ask permission often enough. It will be making autonomy bounded, observable, contestable, and recoverable—so that organizations can obtain machine speed without turning “the model decided” into an excuse no one can challenge.

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